Download Democracy_Corps_August_13_2007_Memo.pdf

Contents : DEMOCRACY CORPS Date: August 13 2007 To: Friends of Democracy Corps From: Stan Greenberg THE CONTOURS OF THE NEW ELECTORATE Special Report on the Democracy Corps Database At important turning points we like to pause and look at the whole database of surveys conducted by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner focusing in particular on the 4 000 interviews conducted during the last four months. There are big changes here that have an enduring quality with the opportunity to shape the parties prospects in 2008. Right now the Democrats enjoy an average lead of 12 points in the generic presidential race (51 to 39 percent) and 9 points in the named congressional ballot (51 to 42 percent). But let us point to some of the trends underneath that make 2008 look like a very big election. The Democrats lead in both the Presidential and Congressional races is undiminished in the core group of the most likely voters. Usually the Republicans cut some of the margin on Election Day because of turnout patterns but that is not likely in 2008. Education one of the best predictors of vote over the past decade is losing its power with both well-educated and blue collar voters moving to the Democrats. In the Congressional ballot for example the high school educated give the Democrat an 11point lead dropping to 10 points among those with some high school and 8 points among the college educated. In short the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning America a little classless. The opinion elite in the country those with a college education and earning more than $75 000 are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate by 11 points (52 to 41 percent). The elites are apparently fed up with the state of the country under George Bush. While the Democratic Presidential candidate is winning the Kerry counties by a two-toone margin the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to 45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground states. Just as important a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly red districts and states but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent). 10 G STREET NE SUITE 400 WASHINGTON DC 20002 202-478-8330 (TEL) 202-289-8648 (FAX) WWW.DEMOCRACYCORPS.COM Contours of the New Electorate The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying those with family members serving in Iraq by almost the same margin as for voters overall 50 to 43 percent. Democratic Congressional candidates who have been prominently trying to change Iraq policy have an even larger lead 53 to 42 percent. The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying all Catholics by 18 points and white Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political direction. In fact the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who attend Church every week. The big difference in the race is independents: Presidentially Democrats are ahead by 19 points Congressionally by 14 points. It is the crash with independents more than Republican defections that is driving the Republican vote down. The Democrats are getting landslide margins with voters under 30 they are even winning whites under 30 by 14 points. Instead of losing younger white non-college men by 19 points as in 2004 the Democratic Presidential candidate now is losing them by only 2. Union voters have not in recent decades been as solid for the Democrats as now. In fact Democrats are winning white union households by two-to-one. One of the key blocs of swing voters is married women. They are breaking marginally for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004. White married women are breaking even in the Presidential and Congressionally the Republican candidate is ahead by only 4 points. One of the key blocs of base voters for Democrats is unmarried women who could comprise a quarter of the electorate. The Democrats are winning them by two to one they are winning white unmarried women by over 20 points. 2

INFO HASH : d721f7fd1540dbc1f818e6e78cb40585519a0597

Download now

File Size: 41.4 kb