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Contents : Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan Potential Fractiousness of Society Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace Support for HN Government COIN operations must accomplish three tasks simultaneously: Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition. Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition. Retain supportive individuals. These operations are conducted in an environment where tensions and hostilities between groups may destabilize a society and provide opportunities for insurgents This environment may suggest courses of action aimed at reinforcing or widening seams An increase in Coalition funding will influence economic investment and development. A strengthened economy will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group. Potential Fractiousness of Society Coalition Funding Economic Investment Economic Development Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Satisfaction with Essential Services Coalition Funding Expectations for Essential Services Economic Investment Time to Develop Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society Economic Development Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace Support for HN Government An increase in Coalition funding will significantly impact the restoration of essential services. Improvements in the provision of essential services will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Satisfaction with Essential Services Time to Develop Governance Coalition Funding Expectations for Essential Services Economic Investment Governance Time to Develop Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness Potential Fractiousness of Society Economic Development Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Perceived Security Available Workforce External Material Support A government that is established recognized and that maintains a secure environment is in a position to Send a positive credible message of success to the populace. Provide an environment that enhances stable employment of the workforce. Persuade insurgents and neutrals to consider becoming supporters. Insurgent Acts of Violence

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